Does buying even make sense right now?

Between higher mortgage rates and home prices that never really came down, the decision feels a lot less straightforward than it did a few years ago.

The short answer:
It depends, but the market isn’t as irrational as it might feel.

Let’s break it down below:

A Quick Snapshot of the Loudoun Market

The Loudoun County housing market in 2026 looks very different from the frenzy of 2021-2022, but it’s also far from a downturn.

What This Data Tells Us

At a high level, this is a market that’s holding steady, not declining.

Home prices have effectively plateaued over the past year, but when you zoom out, values are still higher than they were just a few years ago. That suggests we’re not seeing price correction so much as a pause after rapid growth.

At the same time, inventory has actually declined year-over-year, which helps explain why prices haven’t softened. Even with slightly longer days on market, supply still isn’t high enough to put downward pressure on pricing.

What About Renting?

The most notable shift in the housing data is on the rental side. With rents up double digits and rental inventory sharply down, the cost (and availability) of renting has become a much bigger factor in the rent vs. buy decision. Waiting to buy doesn’t necessarily mean locking in a cheaper monthly payment, it may just mean paying more in rent while you wait.

The Rent vs. Buy Reality in 2026

In many cases today, owning costs more month-to-month than renting.

This is largely due to mortgage rates still being elevated compared to the ultra-low rates we saw a few years ago.

With median rents around $3,100/month, a comparable home purchase, at today’s prices and mortgage rates, will often result in a higher monthly payment, especially once taxes and insurance are factored in.

What we know:

• Rent is rising quickly (+11.4% YoY)

• Rental options are shrinking significantly (-43% inventory YoY)

• Home prices are holding steady, not declining.

Buying today is less about immediate savings and more about:

• Locking in a fixed housing cost (as far as P&I goes)

• Building equity over time

• Avoiding continued rent increases

Comparing Renting and Ownership at Today’s Prices

With the average monthly rent of $3,100 and average home price of $799k, let’s compare what you get for that if you were to rent vs. buy.

Scenario 1: Renting

Address: 25274 Gothic Sq, Chantilly, VA 20152
Monthly Rent: $3,100
Square Feet: 2,456
Cost PSF: $1.26
Upfront Cost: Security deposit (could be 1-month rent) & application fees
Flexibility: High
Equity: None

Scenario 2: Buying at Median Price (~$799k)

Address: 429 Deerpath Ave SW, Leesburg, VA 20175
Purchase Price: $799,500
Square Feet: 3,263
Cost PSF: $245
Interest Rate: 6.43% (varies by buyer)
Down Payment: 20% ($159,900)
Monthly Cost: 4,013.31 (Principal & Interest); $4,550 (incl. Taxes and Insurance)
Upfront Cost: Down payment + closing costs of ~2-5%
Flexibility: Low

At first glance, renting appears significantly more affordable than buying. A median rent of around $3,100 per month is well below the monthly cost of purchasing a home at the county’s median list price of $799k.

But it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

In today’s market, most rental options around the $3,100 price point tend to be townhomes. Conversely, a purchase price near $799k often puts buyers in range of a single-family home, depending on location and condition.

When doing a search for comparable townhomes, however, the prices were largely near $725k - $750k, so not far below the median list price. Purchasing a $750k townhome with 20% down at 6.43% yields a monthly payment of $3,765 before taxes and insurance, and ~$4,300 with.

It’s important to keep in mind the rent vs. buy decision isn’t only about monthly payment, it’s also about space, privacy, and long-term needs.

Scenario 3: Buying a Home and Paying the Median Rent Amount

So you want to buy but you don’t want to spend more than the median rent on PITI (Principal, Interest, Taxes, Insurance)? Let’s look at that.

The numbers primarily differ depending on your down payment, so we will look at this at different levels.

Max Monthly PITI: $3,100
Interest Rate: 6.43%
Loan Term: 30-yr fixed

If you put down ________, you can afford a home worth up to __________.

1. $25,000; $406,000
2. $75,000; $472,000
3. $100,000; $519,000
4. $150,000; $588,000
5. $200,000; $638,000
6. $300,000; $738,000
7. $365,000; $802,600

If you want to exclude Taxes and Insurance and just cover Principal and Interest in the $3,100, it would still take a down payment of $300,000 to afford a home of $794,000.

As you can see, matching today’s median rent with a home purchase would require a much larger upfront investment/down payment than many buyers are planning for.

Otherwise, you’d need a significantly lower purchase price or lower interest rate to be able to match rent.

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Who Buying Still Makes Sense For?

Even in today’s market, there are clear scenarios where buying in Loudoun County, VA is still a strong decision.

1. You plan to stay for 5+ years

   1. With modest appreciation projected, time in the market matters more than timing the market. A longer horizon allows you to ride out short-term fluctuations and benefit from gradual appreciation.

2. Your income is stable and you’re not stretching

   1. With median home prices around $799k, this isn’t a market that favors stretching. Buyers who are financially comfortable have more flexibility to handle higher monthly payments and unexpected costs.

3. You want payment stability

   1. Fixed housing costs and control over your space still matter, especially in a rising rent environment.

Who May Want to Wait to Buy?

There are also situations where holding off is the more practical choice.

1. You Have Short-Term Plans (under 3-5 years)

   1. Transaction costs alone can outweigh any short-term appreciation.

2. You’re relying on rates dropping significantly

   1. Rates may come down, but there’s no guarantee, and lower rates could bring more competition back into the market.

3. You’re highly payment-sensitive

   1. If the difference between renting ($3,100/month) and owning is a stretch, waiting may provide more flexibility, especially as inventory and market conditions continue to evolve.

What’s Actually Changing in Loudoun County?

The underlying story for Loudoun County in 2026 isn’t volatility, it’s rebalancing.

• Home prices are flat YoY

• Inventory is still constrained, even after the peak frenzy years

• Home are taking slightly longer to sell, giving buyers a little more breathing room

• Rental pressure is increasing, not easing

Buyers have more time and less competition than before, but not enough supply to drive down prices.

What About You?

What would make buying feel “worth it” to you in today’s market? Please share in the comments!

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Closed Sales: 137
Up 6.2% compared to February 2025.

Median Sold Price: $1,097,500
Up 8.7% year-over-year and up ~$400,000 from January 2026.

Median Days on Market: 6 days
Up 1 day from February 2025 and down 20 days from January 2026.

New Listings: 151
Down 21.4% year-over-year.

New Pending Sales: 172
Down 6.5% year-over-year and up 30.3% from January 2026 (132).

Months of Supply: 0.98 months
Down -0.18 months from February 2025.

(Data source: Bright MLS)

What These Numbers Suggest

January’s price drop is a reflection of market timing
January’s lower median price likely reflects which homes sold, rather than a broad decline in home values in the area. With longer days on market for January 2026 sales, the data suggests that more carryover listings and homes that needed price adjustments were part of the closing mix.

February data shows the market snapping back
By February, prices have rebounded sharply and days-on-the-market dropped to just 6, pointing to a return to a highly competitive environment. This indicates that strong buyer demand is still there.

Inventory is driving the market
The most significant trend is the drop in new listings, which is keeping inventory tight. Limited supply continues to support price growth. This remains a supply-constrained market rather than one driven by a surge in buyers.

Demand remains seasonal and stable
New pending sales rose more than 30% from January to February, reflecting a typical seasonal pickup in buyer activity. While contract activity is slightly below last year’s levels, it remains in-line with recent historical trends, suggesting a stable demand environment.

Broader Context

February’s data suggests a market that is settling into a more typical seasonal rhythm after January’s slow start. Buyer activity is picking up as expected heading into spring, which tracks closely with recent years as opposed to signaling a meaningful shift in demand.

At the same time, the continued decline in new listings is shaping overall conditions more than buyer behavior. With inventory still limited, even steady demand is enough to keep competition elevated and prices supported.

Taken together, the market appears less volatile than the month-to-month swings might suggest. Recent fluctuations in pricing and activity are better understood as a function of timing and inventory flow, rather than a fundamental change in market direction.

As always, county-level data can mask neighborhood-level variation. Pricing trends and market pace can differ significantly by price point, property type, and community.

Listing Spotlight

Highlighting an active listing that reflects current county-level conditions.

Address: 22879 Courtland Park Drive, Brambleton
List Price: $1,099,900
Beds/Baths: 4 bed / 3.5 bath
Square Footage: 4,066
Days on Market: 1 day

(Source: Redfin)

Why This Listing Is Interesting

• Reflects the median price range.

• Reflects a competitive segment: updated, move-in-ready homes in planned communities.

• Illustrates steady price growth: last sold in 2022 for $950k (+15.9%).

Many people consider Lansdowne part of Leesburg; after all, it has a Leesburg mailing address (zip code of 20176). Lansdowne has actually been its own census-designated place since 2010, conveniently situated between Leesburg and Ashburn. As of the 2020 census, it had a population of 12,427.

Lansdowne is approximately 32 miles from downtown Washington, DC, and 11 miles from Dulles Airport. It is located north of Route 7 and south of the Potomac River. It has a total area of 4.1 square miles or 1,900 acres.

Developed as a master-planned community in 2005 by William A. Hazel, Inc., Lansdowne is known for upscale residential neighborhoods, close proximity to healthcare (Inova Loudoun), and golf & spa access at Lansdowne Resort. There is a town center with office and retail, as well as an active adult living facility, along with over 3,000 residential homes.

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Lansdowne Demographics

The following demographic data is from DataUSA (as of 2024):

• Population: 12,328

• Median Age: 44.9

• Poverty Rate: 3.65%

• Median Household Income: $168,731

• Median Property Value: $774,300

• Employed Population: 6,735 (55%)

Homeowners’ Associations

There are three main residential HOAs in Lansdowne offering unique styles of living:

Lansdowne on the Potomac

• Consists of 2,155 homes, a combination of single-family and townhomes.

• HOA fee around $270 per month.

• Amenities include:

  • Indoor pool, open all year

  • Two seasonal outdoor pools

  • The Potomac Club with fitness center and group fitness studio

  • Events and clubs

  • Game room with ping pong, skee ball, pinball, and arcade games

  • Tennis and pickleball courts

  • Multi-age play areas

  • Outdoor amphitheater with free summer concerts

  • Walking trails

  • Home Internet and digital TV

  • Exclusive event spaces for rental

  • Central Park waterfall and pond

  • Community events

Lansdowne Woods of Virginia

• Condominium community for active adults 55+, consisting of 1,120 units.

• HOA fees range from $576 to $801 per month.

• Amenities in the 48,000 sf clubhouse include:

  • Restaurant & bar

  • Indoor swimming pool and spa

  • Locker rooms with showers and saunas

  • Fully equipped gym

  • Fitness studio

  • Rooftop sports court

  • Concierge servicers

  • Massage studio

  • Theatre room

  • Library and chat room

  • Music studio

  • Pottery studio

  • Art studio

  • Woodworking shop

  • Billiards room

  • Non-denominational chapel

  • 275-seat auditorium/ballroom

  • Meeting rooms

  • Full-service salon

  • Reiki

  • Gift shop

Lansdowne Village Greens

• A mix of ~550 townhome and residential units.

• HOA fees of $178.53 per month, plus additional condo fees, as applicable.

• Amenities include:

  • A clubhouse with gym, pool, and event rentals

  • Community playgrounds

  • Community common areas/walking & jogging paths

• Walking distance to Lansdowne Town Center

Housing Snapshot

According to DataUSA, nearly three-quarters of Lansdowne residents own their homes. Below is housing data from Redfin as of 2026:

• Median Sale Price: $912,500 (+92.3% YoY as of Feb. 2026)

  • This metric is very volatile due to the limited movement. While the Median Sale Price in Feb. 2025 was $474,500 (10 homes sold), resulting in a 92% increase in Feb. 2026, the Median Sale Price in March 2025 was $957,500 (17 homes sold).

• Homes sold (12 mo.): 203

• Typical Days on Market: 42

• Current Inventory (at time of posting): 23 homes

• Condo Price Range: $365,000 - $579,000

• Townhome Price Range: $569,000 - $970,000

• Single Family Price Range: $1,050,000 - $1,525,000

Neighborhood Amenities

Lansdowne has its own Town Center which is walkable to many homes. Anchored by Harris Teeter (grocery store), there are about 13 restaurants of various cuisines, including Italian, Korean BBQ, Mexican, Indian, and more. There are also medical offices, barber shops/salons, banks, and specialty shops, including Kumon and martial arts. There is also a pharmacy, a vet, and a Postal Connections.

Lansdowne is located in close proximity to One Loudoun and downtown Leesburg for additional dining and shopping needs.

Lansdowne Resort is a huge draw to the neighborhood, offering three different golf courses, a well-equipped spa, seasonal packages, and numerous events for the public. It’s consistently rated as a 4-star property and US News & World Report rates it the 19th best hotel and 8th best resort in the state of Virginia.

There are many medical offices in Lansdowne, most notably Inova Loudoun Hospital. Part of the world-class Inova healthcare system, Inova Loudoun offers an emergency department, birthing inn, cancer care, pediatrics, rehabilitation therapy, imaging, and more.

Schools Serving Lansdowne

Loudoun County Public Schools consistently rank among the top school divisions in the state of Virginia, holding onto the #4 spot in 2026.

There are two elementary schools: Seldens Landing and Steuart Weller (located in Ashburn).

There is one middle school: Belmont Ridge

There is one high school: Riverside High

Who Typically Lives in Lansdowne?

• Move-up buyers seeking larger homes

• Newly retired adults seeking more social connection and resort-style amenities

• Medical professionals working near Inova Loudoun

• Families seeking high-rated schools

• People who want to be more secluded and close to nature, but still close to urban conveniences

Pros & Cons of Living in Lansdowne

Pros

• Established community with mature landscaping

• Ample amenities

• Close to hospital and Route 7 (good access)

• Top-rated school district

Cons

• High HOA fees

• Long commute to DC

• Homes built in early-2000’s may need updating

Would you consider living in Lansdowne? If you live there already, what do you like and dislike about it? Share in the comments to help others who are considering a move.

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Closed Sales: 207
Down 20.4% compared to January 2025.

Median Sold Price: $700,000
Up 1.3% year-over-year.

Median Days on Market: 26 days
Up from 15 days last January.

New Listings: 313
Down 6.6% year-over-year.

Months of Supply: 0.90 months
Slightly lower than January 2025 (0.93 months).

(Data source: Bright MLS)

What These Numbers Suggest

Transaction volume slowed.
A 20% drop in closed sales indicates fewer homes changed hands compared to last January. This can reflect seasonal patterns, rate sensitivity, or simply fewer willing sellers. January also included a significant snowstorm, which may have contributed to reduced activity during the month.

Prices remain relatively stable.
Despite lower transaction activity, the median sold price edged up 1.3% year-over-year. That suggests pricing has not meaningfully softened at the county level.

Homes are taking longer to sell.
Median days on market increased from 15 to 26 days. While still historically low, this points to a slightly less competitive environment than early 2025.

Inventory remains tight.
At 0.90 months of supply, Loudoun continues to operate in a constrained inventory environment (read: seller’s market). For context, a balanced market typically sits closer to 4–6 months of supply.

Broader Context

The combination of:

• Lower transaction volume

• Modestly rising prices

• Longer marketing times

suggests a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating.

Buyers may be experiencing slightly more breathing room compared to a year ago, but inventory constraints continue to limit overall flexibility.

As always, county-level data can mask neighborhood-level variation. Individual price bands and communities may behave differently.

Listing Spotlight

Highlighting an active listing that reflects current county-level conditions.

Address: 13829 Mountain Road, Hillsboro, VA
List Price: $698,000
Beds/Baths: 2 bed / 1 bath
Square Footage: 1,136
Days on Market: 137 days

(Source: Redfin)

Why This Listing Is Interesting

• Reflects the median price range

• Has been on the market longer than typical

• Has remained at its initial asking price despite extended time on market

Today, the list prices may look similar, but the rate environment is anything but. Here’s what that budget bought then, and what it buys now.

*All monthly payment calculations assume a 20% down payment and exclude taxes, insurance, and any applicable HOA fees.

Then: 2021 Snapshot

43750 Carson Ct, Ashburn

Sold: Feb. 2021 - $805,000

• Single-family

• 5 bed / 3.5 bath

• 3,714 sq ft

• 0.25 acre lot

• Renovated kitchen

• 2-car garage

Estimated Monthly Payment at 3%: $2,715/month (P&I only)

42502 Mildred Landing Sq, Ashburn

Sold: April 2021 - $807,000

• Townhome

• 4 bed / 4 bath

• 3,381 sq ft

• 0.06 acre lot

• Rooftop terrace

• 3-year old construction

Estimated Monthly Payment at 3%: $2,722/month (P&I only)

Now: 2026 Snapshot

42462 Great Heron Sq, Ashburn

Sold: Feb. 2026 - $790,000

• Townhome (end-unit)

• 3 bed / 2.5 bath

• 2,833 sq ft

• 0.07 acre lot

• 2-car garage

• Walking distance to Brambleton Town Ceter

Estimated Monthly Payment at 6%: $3,789/month (P&I only)

42692 Keiller Ter, Ashburn

Sold: Feb. 2026 - $795,000

• Townhome (end-unit)

• 4 bed / 3.5 bath

• 2,964 sq ft

• 0.07 acre lot

• 2-car garage

• Backs to woods

Estimated Monthly Payment at 6%: $3,813/month (P&I only)

The Shift

• Similar price point, ~$1,000/month higher carrying cost

• Smaller average square footage

• ~25% increase in price per sf

• No single-family sales at this price point in 2026 YTD

Over the past 5 years, the Loudoun housing market hasn’t just changed in price, it has changed in financing reality. Buying power is shaped as much by rates as it is by square footage.